Ukraine’s Energy War Is Crippling Russia’s War Machine

Ukraine endured a punishing weekend. Large parts of the country were left without power for eight to sixteen hours on Sunday after what officials described as the most intense assault on its energy system since the start of the full-scale war. Yet Kyiv’s own counteroffensive against Russia’s energy infrastructure is gathering pace—and it may be starting to shift the balance.

The strikes have become so precise and sustained that a few more successful hits could cripple both the Kremlin’s military logistics and its economic foundations, potentially forcing Vladimir Putin toward a negotiated end to the war.

Since early 2025, Ukraine has struck at least thirteen Russian oil refineries. The tempo of attacks has since escalated into a full-scale campaign: by early October, twenty-one of Russia’s thirty-eight largest refineries had been damaged, cutting an estimated 38 percent of the country’s primary refining capacity. Even the weekend’s massive Russian bombardment followed a series of Ukrainian strikes days earlier that hit Lukoil’s Volgograd refinery—now targeted six times—as well as a power station in Volgorechensk, northeast of Moscow, and an oil depot in occupied Crimea.

According to reporting by the Financial Times, Ukraine has been using U.S. intelligence to identify high-value energy targets inside Russia, a sign that President Donald Trump may indeed be pressing to bring Putin to the negotiating table. The results are becoming visible. Russia still relies on oil and gas revenues for roughly half of its federal budget, but exports fell by an estimated 26 percent in September and continued to slide as more facilities went offline in October. Gas exports are at their lowest level in half a century; oil refining has dropped to a five-year low. Moscow has been forced to impose export restrictions as domestic fuel shortages reach around 20 percent. Ordinary Russians are beginning to feel, for the first time, the real cost of the war. Read more in Time.