UKRAINE ACCEPTS IMF FORECAST OF BIGGER $65 BILLION FINANCING GAP

Ukraine has agreed to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) assessment that the country will require $65 billion in external financing through 2027, far above Kyiv’s earlier projection of $38 billion, Bloomberg News reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the talks.

The revised estimate follows negotiations between Ukraine’s government and the Washington-based lender and has reportedly been shared with the European Commission. While the size of a new IMF loan has not yet been formally decided, discussions have pointed to a potential package of around $8 billion, according to the report.

Ukraine currently operates under a $15.5 billion IMF programme set to expire in 2027. The government spends around 60% of its national budget on the war effort against Russia and relies heavily on Western assistance to cover basic state expenditures, including pensions, salaries for public employees, and humanitarian services.

Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko confirmed last week that Kyiv is seeking a new four-year IMF programme to stabilize the economy as the conflict continues.

The IMF declined to comment, and Ukrainian officials were not immediately available.

The IMF’s higher projection underscores both the scale of Ukraine’s fiscal challenges and the fragility of its wartime economy. Kyiv’s earlier $38 billion estimate likely reflected a best-case scenario of sustained Western aid and moderate war costs. The IMF’s $65 billion figure, however, suggests more prolonged military expenditures, slower economic recovery, and greater reconstruction needs.

The gap between the two estimates also highlights the political dimension of financial planning in wartime. By persuading Ukraine to accept the higher figure, the IMF and European partners are signaling that Kyiv’s financing requirements will be far more extensive and that long-term commitments from donors will be essential.

If a new IMF programme materializes at the reported $8 billion level, it would represent a confidence anchor for other international donors, as IMF backing often unlocks additional bilateral and multilateral support. Yet, with U.S. and EU political debates on aid intensifying, sustaining predictable funding streams could prove difficult.

For Ukraine, the acceptance of the IMF’s projection may help build credibility with donors, but it also raises the stakes: closing a $65 billion financing gap will require not only loans but also significant grants, debt relief discussions, and continued Western political will. Read more on Reuters.