UKRAINE WAR NEARS A TURNING POINT

At a recent conference in Kyiv, America’s special envoy Keith Kellogg remarked: “We are exceptionally close to the end.” His words reflect a growing sense that both Russia and Ukraine are reaching the limits of what can be achieved on the battlefield.

Russia continues to push in the Donbas, but gains are costly and slow. Ukraine, exhausted by years of defense, also faces the reality of diminishing returns. Morale is slipping: desertion rates are rising on both sides, and public opinion shows a clear longing for an end to the fighting.

Recent polls suggest 58% of Russians would accept a ceasefire without conditions, while 59% of Ukrainians would accept compromise — even at the cost of losing territory — if it brought peace. Leaders may remain uncompromising, but ordinary people are increasingly weary of endless war.

A formal peace looks unlikely. Instead, many expect a pause — a frozen conflict that could last months or even years. Relief may come, but true resolution remains elusive.

Read the full analysis in The Economist.