War has turned Ukraine’s economy into a case study in survival. More than three years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, GDP is barely inching forward, foreign donors keep the budget afloat, and infrastructure is battered with depressing regularity. Yet the country has not collapsed. Instead, it has settled into a precarious equilibrium: one part economic resilience, one part external lifeline.

Ukraine’s acceptance of the $65B needs estimate is less a warning siren than a policy coordination device: it sets a realistic number for donors to plan against and underscores the need for predictable, concessional, multi-year funding. With an IMF anchor, a scaled-up EU role, and innovative (legally durable) mechanisms around Russian assets, Kyiv can cover civilian spending, preserve macro stability, and prepare the ground for reconstruction—provided the money is timely, the mix favors grants, and the power system is kept running.